The evidence, before
the argument.
Every agent will tell you they know the market. This page is where I show it — the current data, the analysis behind it, and the career record that says the approach works.
Five things that define
this market.
The two counties decoupled
Napa County closed 23.9% more homes than a year ago, yet the median home took 91 days. Sonoma County closed fewer, and they sold in 60.
Micro-markets rule
In Q2, St. Helena/Yountville’s median rose 30% while Healdsburg’s $3M+ sales fell 30%. County-level medians hide more than they reveal.
Insurability is a deal-maker or deal-breaker
An 84% premium run-up since 2020 and a FAIR Plan capped at $3M — below replacement cost for most estates — make coverage a gating factor in the hills and vineyards. The FAIR Plan’s 29.1% rate increase takes effect Oct 15.
The top holds; middle-luxury negotiates
Sonoma County’s $3M+ median rose about 22% in Q2 on 50%+ more closings, while the $1M–$3M band sold near 97% of list.
Rates broke out above 7%
The 30-year fixed went from 6.76% on Sept 10 to 7.28% on Oct 1. Cash and low-leverage buyers now set the pace at the top, on terms rate-dependent buyers cannot match.
Source: The Wine Country Index™, Q3 2026 edition: C.A.R. single-family data for August 2026, Sotheby’s International Realty submarket reports (Q1–Q2 2026), Freddie Mac (Oct 1, 2026) and the California FAIR Plan. Figures are directional; verify comparables before decisions.
Before this, I was hired
to find buyers at scale.
My local sold record starts now, and it will be published here, deal by deal. What stands behind it is twenty-five years of doing the hardest part of this job, finding the exact buyer and closing the deal, across four companies built from zero.
Represented and featured
Active and co-listed properties appear here as they come to market, each with the data story behind the launch — the buyer-pool model, the pricing logic, and how the campaign performed.
Client results
Every closing is added here with the numbers that made it work, and testimonials are requested at every close. This section grows in public, transaction by transaction.
The numbers beneath
the county median.
A free, block-level read of the Wine Country luxury market, published every quarter: pricing, days on market, absorption, and the insurance squeeze now deciding deals. Seven pages. Useful whether or not we ever work together.
